BLiTZ
In recent years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has embarked on a relentless military buildup that has not only challenged the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific but also posed a growing national security threat to the United States. What’s more alarming is that China’s military expansion is not limited to the conventional arms race; it is coupled with an increasingly sophisticated psychological warfare campaign, including cognitive warfare tactics aimed at undermining the very foundations of American society and political decision-making. This complex blend of military modernization and information warfare, combined with questionable strategic timelines, represents a significant threat to the US and its allies.
The 2024 Department of Defense (DoD) China Military Power Report, as well as recent analyses from prominent sources such as Bill Gertz in the Washington Times, reveals a chilling picture of China’s rapid military expansion. This buildup goes beyond traditional military strategy and seeks to position China as a global superpower capable of challenging the United States for global dominance.
China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) has undergone an extraordinary expansion in its missile capabilities. Some of the most concerning developments include:
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs): The PLARF now possesses 400 ICBMs capable of striking the continental US This increase includes the addition of 50 new ICBMs, which significantly enhance China’s long-range strike capabilities.
Ballistic and Cruise Missiles: More than 300 medium-range ballistic missiles and 100 long-range cruise missiles are now part of China’s arsenal, expanding its reach within the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
Nuclear Warheads: China’s nuclear arsenal currently comprises over 600 warheads, a number that is projected to exceed 1,000 by 2030. This nuclear buildup aims to establish China’s strategic deterrence capacity against any potential US or allied intervention.
Hypersonic Missiles: China’s investment in hypersonic technology, such as the DF-27 missile, presents a significant challenge to US missile defense systems. These missiles can evade detection and intercept systems, posing a direct threat to critical US territories such as Guam, Hawaii, and Alaska.
Naval Expansion: China’s naval force is already the largest in the world, with over 370 ships and submarines. By 2030, this number is expected to grow to 435, further solidifying China’s maritime dominance in the Indo-Pacific region.
This buildup represents not just an expansion of military power but a strategic move to challenge the US military’s ability to project force globally, especially in the Indo-Pacific. China’s growing capabilities in missile technology, naval power, and nuclear weapons signal a shift toward a more confrontational posture with the West.
Beyond the expansion of conventional military forces, China’s most insidious form of aggression is its focus on cognitive warfare. This emerging doctrine aims not to directly engage military forces in battle, but instead to manipulate the information and decision-making processes of its adversaries. The goal is to weaken the resolve of enemies without ever firing a shot. Cognitive warfare includes the use of AI, deepfakes, and other technological advancements to distort reality and demoralize opponents.
China’s cognitive warfare strategy involves using advanced AI tools to carry out psychological operations that impact both military personnel and civilian populations. Key elements of this approach include:
Deepfake Technology: China has been experimenting with deepfake videos and audio to manipulate perceptions during international crises, deceiving military and political leaders. This technology can be used to create fake communications from political figures or military commanders, leading to confusion and poor decision-making.
Influence Operations via Social Media: Platforms like TikTok, which are popular among younger populations, have been used by China to promote anti-US narratives. These operations target not just adversary populations, but also US allies in the region, eroding trust in US leadership and sowing discord among allies.
Psychological Warfare to Demoralize US Troops: China is also working to undermine the morale of US military personnel by spreading disinformation designed to create division and confusion within the ranks. These tactics are intended to weaken US resolve and fracture alliances.
This psychological manipulation campaign is a testament to China’s strategic shift toward unconventional warfare. As Sun Tzu, the ancient Chinese military strategist, advised, “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” China’s cognitive warfare operations are an embodiment of this principle, relying on the manipulation of perceptions and emotions rather than conventional military engagement.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has outlined ambitious goals for its military modernization. Officially, the CCP aims to achieve military readiness for an action against Taiwan by 2027, establish strategic dominance by 2035, and build a world-class military by 2049, the centenary of the CCP’s victory in China’s civil war.
However, these timelines should be viewed with skepticism. Many analysts believe these dates are deliberately set to mislead potential adversaries into underestimating China’s true capabilities. The accelerated pace of China’s missile development, naval expansion, and cognitive warfare preparations suggests that the CCP may already possess more advanced capabilities than it publicly acknowledges. China’s strategy may well be designed to lull adversaries into complacency while it quietly accelerates its military and technological progress.
While China aggressively pursues its military goals, the United States is grappling with a dire fiscal situation. The federal deficit and national debt continue to grow, straining military budgets. The US has invested $5.4 trillion in the global war on terror, yet much of this spending has been inefficient and misdirected, leaving the US strategically vulnerable in the face of the rising Chinese threat.
The US must now confront a fundamental challenge: how to rebuild its military power while managing a ballooning national debt. To counter China’s growing military capabilities, the US must prioritize investments in:
Naval Power: Rebuilding the US Navy with additional surface combatants, submarines, and support vessels is critical to countering China’s naval ambitions.
Nuclear Deterrence: Modernizing the US nuclear arsenal to ensure a credible deterrence against China’s rapidly expanding nuclear stockpile.
Missile Defense Systems: Investing in next-generation missile defense technology to protect critical US assets in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
Maritime Lift Capability: Expanding strategic sealift capacity to ensure the rapid deployment of US forces in any potential conflict.
However, this necessary military modernization cannot come at the cost of unchecked spending. The Pentagon’s bloated bureaucracy, inefficiencies in procurement, and outdated programs must be reformed to free up resources for the critical investments required to counter China’s rise.
To achieve the necessary military modernization, the Pentagon must undergo significant reforms. This includes eliminating redundant programs, streamlining procurement processes, and reducing bureaucratic overhead. The aim should be to create a more agile, efficient, and cost-effective military apparatus capable of responding swiftly to emerging threats.
At the same time, Congress must prioritize defense spending that directly counters China’s growing military power. This will require difficult decisions, but it is essential for ensuring that the US remains prepared for the challenges of the coming decades.
China’s rapid military buildup and its focus on cognitive warfare are clear signals of its intentions to challenge the US and its allies for global supremacy. The US must respond with a clear, focused strategy that combines fiscal responsibility with military readiness. By streamlining defense spending, prioritizing modernization, and investing in critical technologies, the US can maintain its competitive edge.
President-elect Donald Trump’s national security team, with its understanding of the threat posed by China, must move swiftly to rebuild the US military’s capacity to counter this emerging challenge. With the right strategy and reforms, the US can ensure that it remains the dominant global power and can deter any adversary, including China, from destabilizing the international order.
Sonjib Chandra Das is a Staff Correspondent of Blitz.