BLiTZ
The Myanmar military, known as the Tatmadaw, carried out new air strikes on Lashio, an opposition-controlled town, just hours after extending an unprecedented invitation for peace talks to its adversaries on September 27. The invitation marks the first significant outreach by the junta to the various ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy forces that have fiercely resisted its rule since the 2021 military coup. However, analysts believe the offer may have been motivated by the junta’s precarious battlefield position and growing pressure from its key ally, China, rather than genuine intent for reconciliation.
On September 26, Myanmar’s junta surprised observers by inviting armed resistance groups to engage in talks about the ongoing civil war, a conflict that has only intensified in the three years since the military ousted the civilian government of Aung San Suu Kyi. The invitation, although significant, was quickly overshadowed by renewed air strikes on Lashio, a town in northern Shan state, now under the control of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), an ethnic armed group that has fiercely opposed the junta.
Eyewitness reports from Lashio, a town of 150,000 people, indicated that military jets bombarded key positions within the town. “I heard two explosions,” a local resident told AFP, adding that several people were killed, with many others wounded. The strike underscores the junta’s continued reliance on military force, even as it extends an olive branch to the very groups it has vowed to “annihilate.”
The town of Lashio is strategically significant, as it is the largest urban center to have fallen into the hands of rebel groups since 1962, when ethnic tensions first erupted in Myanmar. Its loss marks a major blow to the military, which has struggled to maintain control of the country’s borders and lucrative trade routes.
Analysts are skeptical of the junta’s intentions, viewing the offer for dialogue as more of a strategic move aimed at placating China, Myanmar’s largest ally and arms supplier, rather than a genuine attempt to end the conflict. Richard Horsey, a senior advisor at the International Crisis Group, noted that this was the first time since the coup that the junta had expressed any willingness to negotiate with the resistance. However, the timing of the offer suggests it is likely a response to growing pressure from Beijing, which has been pushing for a peaceful resolution and stability in Myanmar, particularly as China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects depend on access to key regions within the country.
“It would allow them to portray themselves-for example, to China-as wanting peace, even while they continue with their campaign of indiscriminate airstrikes,” Horsey explained. China has a vested interest in maintaining stability along its borders with Myanmar and ensuring the security of its BRI investments, which include infrastructure projects that run through contested regions.
In August, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed support for the junta’s plan to hold fresh elections and return the country to a “democratic transition.” While Beijing’s emphasis on elections as a pathway to peace may seem like a step towards de-escalation, the proposed vote is widely seen as a ploy by the military to consolidate its power under the guise of democracy.
The junta’s offer was met with swift rejection from prominent ethnic armed groups and resistance forces. The Karen National Union (KNU), which has fought for decades for autonomy along Myanmar’s border with Thailand, dismissed the possibility of talks unless the military agreed to a set of “common political objectives.” These include the military’s withdrawal from politics, the acceptance of a federal constitution, and accountability for war crimes.
“If they don’t agree with it, then nothing will happen… We will keep putting pressure on them politically, militarily,” KNU spokesperson Padoh Saw Taw Nee told AFP.
Other ethnic armed groups, such as the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), which hold territory in northern Myanmar, have yet to formally respond to the junta’s offer. However, the MNDAA, the group that now controls Lashio, has not been reached for comment.
Pro-democracy militias, such as the “People’s Defence Forces” (PDF) that formed in opposition to the coup, have also rejected the offer. Osmond, a spokesperson for the “Mandalay PDF,” which has seized territory near Myanmar’s second-largest city, Mandalay, stated that the invitation would not alter their stance. “We will keep doing what we have to do,” he said, reaffirming their commitment to resisting the military regime through force.
The junta’s proposed peace talks have raised eyebrows not only within Myanmar but also among neighboring countries and international observers. China’s influence over the process is particularly significant, given its close ties to the regime and strategic interests in Myanmar. However, independent analyst David Mathieson emphasized that the offer is also likely aimed at Myanmar’s other neighbors and some Western diplomats, who may view elections as a possible route to reducing violence, even if they are deeply flawed.
The military has consistently justified its 2021 coup by alleging widespread fraud in the 2020 elections, which saw a landslide victory for Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD). In the aftermath of the coup, the junta dissolved the NLD and imposed strict new rules governing political parties, making it virtually impossible for opposition groups to participate in any future elections.
Census takers are scheduled to begin collecting data in early October in preparation for elections in 2025. However, analysts warn that any vote held under current conditions would be a sham and is likely to be targeted by the military’s opponents. Armed resistance groups, including the PDFs, have vowed to disrupt any attempt to stage an election, arguing that it would only legitimize the junta’s grip on power.
Despite the skepticism surrounding the peace offer, the junta may still benefit from its announcement, even if no meaningful talks materialize. Mathieson noted that the military has long employed a “divide and rule” strategy to weaken its adversaries, pitting ethnic armed groups against each other while maintaining control over key regions.
This strategy, though increasingly strained by the junta’s failures on the battlefield, remains a central pillar of its approach to governance. By extending an offer of peace, however disingenuous, the junta may hope to create divisions within the opposition, distracting from its continued reliance on military force to maintain control.
As Myanmar’s conflict drags on, the prospects for genuine reconciliation seem distant. For now, the junta appears content to strike a fragile balance between offering peace and continuing its campaign of brutal repression.
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